Analysis of Iran's Air Quality Management Policies Based on the Time Series of Criteria Pollutant Concentrations

Based on a World Bank report, air pollution is the fourth leading risk factor for death worldwide, with one in ten deaths attributed to air pollution. Air quality management policy-making began in the 1950s in countries like the UK and the USA. In Iran, the first air quality management resolution was issued in 1975 and has undergone changes over the past 48 years. This article first reviews all resolutions and laws related to air quality management, identifies the main axes, and estimates the extent of their overlap.

In the next step, to evaluate the effectiveness of these policies, the time series of the concentrations of six criteria pollutants (CO, NO2, SO2, PM2.5, PM10, and O3) from three air quality monitoring stations in Tehran over a ten-year period is plotted, and the best trend line is fitted and compared with the country's approved policies.

Additionally, the time series analysis of pollutant concentrations shows that sulfur dioxide levels have consistently decreased over the past ten years, reducing by more than 60%, likely due to the 2014 resolution on fuel quality standardization. However, the analysis of carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide trends, which are often the result of combustion system activities, suggests that policies related to controlling emissions from mobile sources (emission standards, technical inspections, fleet renewal, urban traffic management, etc.) and optimizing combustion in stationary sources (power plants, industries, boiler rooms, etc.) have not been sufficiently effective.