Modeling Land Use/ Land Cover Changes and Their Impacts on Carbon Storage in Tehran Metropolitan Area

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Department of Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modares University

Abstract

Rapid population growth in Tehran metropolis has led to extensive changes in land use, including the expansion of urban areas, agricultural lands, and industrial lands. These changes have had important impacts on environmental processes such as carbon storage. This study aimed to investigate land use/land cover changes and analyze their effects on Tehran's carbon storage capacity from 2017 to 2023. For this purpose, Sentinel-2 satellite images were used and land use maps were validated using Google Earth images and accuracy and kappa indices. Future changes were predicted using artificial neural network, Markov chain, and land use change models. The results showed that from 2017 to 2023, residential and urban areas expanded along with the reduction of green spaces and agricultural lands. These changes have led to a decrease in carbon storage capacity in parts of this metropolis. Predictions indicate that the trend of residential expansion, particularly in the western, southern and southwestern parts, will continue in the coming years, although at a slower pace than in the previous period. The findings of this study emphasize the importance of land-use planning to improve carbon storage in urban areas.

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Zist Sepehr Student Magazine
Volume 18, Issue 3
December 2025
Pages 73-87

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